Summary of Isolated SAVR, MVR, MV Repair with CABG Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2017-2018
Outcome: Mortality
Mortality includes death during the surgery admission, death during a connected subsequent acute inpatient admission, or death at an emergency department encounter or inpatient re-admission within 30 days of the index surgery Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice after the surgery admission and who were residents of California at the time of the surgery.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 4,150
% of Observations with Outcome: 5.3%
C-statistic: 0.763
Pseudo-R2: 14.3
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.466
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-2.80.368.40.000
Age at Admission18-<50 899.40.70.42.70.0992.10.94.8
50-<551232.9-0.80.61.60.2020.40.11.6
55-<602674.8-0.10.40.00.8450.90.51.9
60-<655003.0-0.70.44.30.0390.50.21.0
65-<707414.7Reference
70-<758614.2-0.10.30.20.6620.90.51.5
75-<808886.50.40.22.20.1401.40.92.3
80 or older6817.70.50.23.80.0521.61.02.6
Patient SexMale 3,0424.6Reference
Female1,1087.40.50.28.50.0041.61.22.2
Patient RaceWhite 2,7475.0Reference
Non-White1,4036.00.20.21.10.2901.20.91.6
Type of Valve ProcedureSAVR Only 2,6534.3Reference
MVR Only5239.00.30.22.60.1061.40.92.1
MV Repair Only7054.5-0.40.22.20.1400.70.41.1
Multiple Valves including SAVR, MVR or MV Repair26910.50.70.38.40.0042.11.33.4
Underweight / Weight Loss19515.70.80.211.40.0012.31.43.7
Acute MI Present at Scheduled Admission0.20.50.10.7361.20.43.5
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission6947.50.20.20.60.4551.20.81.7
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency3,8874.8-1.00.219.50.0000.40.20.6
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter1,2626.60.20.21.00.3071.20.91.6
Cardiogenic Shock12617.21.20.316.60.0003.31.95.9
Cardiomyopathy3074.5-0.60.33.80.0510.50.31.0
Heart Failure2,1867.10.50.29.00.0031.71.22.4
HX Sudden Cardiac Arrest (Begin 2007)215.40.11.10.00.8881.20.19.2
Chronic Lung Disease5834.5-0.20.20.80.3710.80.51.3
Cerebrovascular Disease3575.2-0.10.30.10.7530.90.51.6
Diabetes1,8485.5-0.10.20.20.6590.90.71.3
Dialysis4610.90.30.50.20.6351.30.53.6
Infectious Endocarditis8916.40.60.42.80.0951.80.93.7
Number of GraftsOne 1,4464.0-0.50.25.50.0190.60.40.9
Two1,0986.20.00.20.00.8241.00.71.5
Three or More1,6065.9Reference
PCI prior to Admission5083.8-0.40.32.00.1610.70.41.2
Prior PCI on same Day as Surgery633.31.81.03.10.0806.10.846.6
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump5912.10.60.51.40.2361.80.74.7
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery1884.0-0.20.40.30.6140.80.41.8
Peripheral Vascular Disease6724.7-0.20.20.60.4580.90.61.3
Renal Failure1,2217.60.40.25.30.0221.51.12.0
Same Day Tricuspid Valve20213.00.80.39.50.0022.21.33.7
Status of Procedure Urgent348.9-0.30.80.20.6690.70.23.4
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
PCI: Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
SAVR: Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement
MVR: Mitral Valve Replacement
MV Repair: Mitral Valve Repair