Summary of Isolated SAVR, MVR, MV Repair Model based on California Inpatient Discharge Data, 2017-2018
Outcome: Mortality
Mortality includes death during the surgery admission, death during a connected subsequent acute inpatient admission, or death at an emergency department encounter or inpatient re-admission within 30 days of the index surgery Only patients are included who did not leave against medical advice after the surgery admission and who were residents of California at the time of the surgery.
Model Statistics:
Number of Observations: 9,410
% of Observations with Outcome: 2.9%
C-statistic: 0.785
Pseudo-R2: 14.6
Hosmer-Lemeshow P-Value: 0.314
Model Details:
Risk Factor N Cases % Events Estimate Standard Error Wald Chi2 P-value Odds Ratio (OR) Lower 95% CL for OR Upper 95% CL for OR
Intercept-4.10.3203.80.000
Age at Admission18-<50 1,0853.30.00.30.00.9351.00.61.8
50-<556552.1-0.30.40.90.3530.70.41.4
55-<601,0692.1-0.30.31.10.3040.70.41.3
60-<651,3811.9-0.30.30.80.3590.80.41.3
65-<701,6642.2Reference
70-<751,5742.40.10.20.10.7711.10.71.7
75-<801,2424.20.60.25.80.0161.71.12.8
80 or older7406.01.00.217.10.0002.71.74.4
Patient SexMale 5,5632.4Reference
Female3,8473.60.40.17.30.0071.51.11.9
Patient RaceWhite 5,8862.5Reference
Non-White3,5243.40.20.11.60.2051.20.91.6
Type of Valve ProcedureSAVR Only 4,7212.0Reference
MVR Only1,7934.30.50.28.80.0031.71.22.5
MV Repair Only1,9581.1-0.60.34.70.0310.50.30.9
Multiple Valves including SAVR, MVR or MV Repair9387.91.20.243.90.0003.42.44.8
Underweight / Weight Loss45613.01.30.251.70.0003.72.65.2
Acute MI Present at Unscheduled Admission1839.20.70.34.90.0272.01.13.6
Aortic/Mitral Valve Disease/Stenosis/Insufficiency8,3602.6-0.50.26.50.0110.60.40.9
Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter3,1793.2-0.20.22.60.1040.80.61.1
Cardiogenic Shock14710.71.00.39.50.0022.61.44.8
Cardiomyopathy8593.10.00.20.00.9301.00.61.5
Coronary Artery Disease2,6823.00.00.20.10.7481.00.71.3
Heart Failure4,3363.80.10.10.90.3551.10.91.5
Chronic Lung Disease8573.20.00.20.00.8441.00.71.6
Cerebrovascular Disease5855.30.50.24.30.0391.61.02.4
Diabetes2,3863.20.00.20.00.9871.00.71.4
Dialysis669.40.40.50.60.4291.50.63.7
Infectious Endocarditis7546.20.10.20.20.6491.10.71.7
Pre-Op Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump654.80.10.70.00.8351.10.34.2
Prior CABG/Valve Surgery5053.70.30.31.70.1871.40.82.4
Peripheral Vascular Disease9852.1-0.60.36.50.0110.50.30.9
Renal Failure1,8744.70.40.26.60.0101.51.12.0
Same Day Tricuspid Valve8805.10.30.23.20.0751.41.02.1
Status of Procedure Urgent533.90.20.80.10.8071.20.35.2
Notes:
If a patient had more than one surgery event of the same type on different dates during the index admission, only the surgery on the earliest date is included for fitting the model.
CL: Confidence Limit
CABG: Coronary Artery Bypass Graft
SAVR: Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement
MVR: Mitral Valve Replacement
MV Repair: Mitral Valve Repair